Abstract This paper explores the possible changesthat will be made in the world with respect to the development of artificialintelligence. Since the effects of AI are said to start changingthe world within the next fifty years, it becomes important to assess how our lifestyleswill be affected and what the future of our generation will be like.
For now, it is too soon to tell what exactlywill become of the world if artificial intelligence continues to develop at therapid pace it is developing at, this paper tries to look at different versionsof the future by looking at the opinions of various experts and pioneers in thefield. Introduction Artificial Intelligenceis a word which evokes strong emotions and responses from everyone.While some people believethat artificial intelligence is necessary in the world if we wish to progress,some argue that it is disruptive and will destroy the basic nature of humanity.While some people feel it will help save millions of lives and make ourlifestyles better, some argue that artificial intelligence will make humansobsolete and leave millions jobless. This has led to much debate and an attemptto answer the question: how will artificial intelligence change the human race? What is Artificial Intelligence? John McCarthy, thefounder of artificial intelligence, defined artificial intelligence as, “Thescience and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligentcomputer programs.” Artificialintelligence is defined as a branch of Computer Science, refers to those machinesor programs, and the creation of those machines or programs that simulate humanintelligence, and behavior.
Goals of AI These machines orsoftware are designed for various uses, some of which include: Learning Problem solving Reasoning Motion Manipulation Creativity Speech recognition Planning Language Processing How Far Have We Come in the Field of AI? The field of artificialintelligence has come a long way from its foundation, and is rapidly advancing.The term ‘artificial intelligence’ was coined in 1956 at a conference held in DartmouthCollege. Research on the topic was released after the conference at Dartmouthwas made public, which led the government to fund the research for the developmentof artificial intelligence. However, in the 1970s, progress was slow, and thisled to difficulty in obtaining funds for research. This period came to be knownas the first AI Winter.
There was a boom inthe development of AI in the early 1980s, and this led to the creation of artificiallyintelligent devices were initially based on simple programs, and their scopewas relatively limited. Expert system, which were designed in the 1980s, were thefirst successful AI software designed to imitate the decision-making abilities ofhuman, and were created to solve complex problems. After this was a decline inthe field of AI development one more. There was a revivalof the field of AI in the late twentieth century. An example, in 1997, IBM’schess playing computer program Deep Blue, beat chess grand master GaryKasparov. Today, artificialintelligence is deeply ingrained in almost every aspect of our lives, frombanking to entertainment. In today’s world, artificial intelligence iseverywhere- Siri and Alexa are just a few basic examples of artificialintelligences that have become commonly used. Artificial intelligence isbeginning to help solve some of the world’s most pressing issues such as diseasesand food shortages.
Artificial Intelligence in Medical Epidemiology (Aime) is asystem that can predict where outbreaks of diseases like Zika are most likelyto happen. The Mcrops Project has enabled farmers in Uganda to spot diseases responsiblefor destroying their crops. AI is revolutionizing the field of healthcare. InDecember 2017, the Apple Watch helped save a man’s life by notifying him of animpending heart attack. However, with newadvancements being made in the field every day, what could be the implicationson humanity? What is the Future of AI? Machine Learning and its Implications One of the main goals in the developmentof Artificial Intelligence is the creation of a machine that will surpass all humanabilities.
With the help of machine learning, this is becoming a possibility.Machine learning is the development of programs that can access data and learnit for themselves, this will allow computers to learn automatically withouthuman intervention. An example of technologies being developedto use this include the MICO robotic arm. This machine will result in a roboticarm with sharing of control between the machine and the human. The Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot, throughlearning, can now stitch together pig intestines better than any human surgeon. One of the main things that sets human intelligenceapart now is language. Though we have AI, such as Siri and Alexa, that can understandbasic spoken commands, researchers are now attempting, using machine learning, tocreate artificial intelligence that has greater language understandingcapability.
This could result in the creation of machines we can easilycommunicate with. Healthcare Artificialintelligence is primarily being created to solve problems. One of the problemsthat artificial intelligence is working on solving is healthcare. DeepMind,Google’s AI company is creating software to diagnose cancer from patientscars. Software is also being createdfor the early diagnosis of heart disease and Alzheimer’s. It is also predictedthat by the year 2021, wearable devices will help users add an average of sixmonths to their lifespans. Road Safety The death rate fordriving is 1.
3 deaths per 100 miles driven, as per a report from the USNational Safety Council. However, for autonomous systems, the death rate ismuch lesser- only one death for 130 million miles. We can expectto see driverless cars on the road in twenty years. Climate Change Robots are being developed to reduce pollution. IBM has a project, GreenHorizon, which is developing a computer that can predict the intensity of airpollution in different areas in advances.
This could help in reducing pollutionby closing factories, or restricting drivers on the roads in areas wherepollution is expected to increase. Renewable Resources Artificial intelligence is also being developed to help solve the issueof depleting resources. Upside Energy is a start-up building algorithms to helpstore and release energy at convenient times. This could be critical in helpingmake renewable sources of energy such as solar energy more commonly useable. Revolutionizing WarAccording to a research conducted by GregAllen on AI and National Security, “In the short term, advances in artificialintelligence will likely allow more autonomous robotic support to warfighters, and accelerate the shift from manned to unmanned combat missions.” The research states that in the long term, AI will transformmilitary power and warfare. What is the future ofhuman jobs in a world of artificial intelligence? Robotics and artificial intelligence will impact wide segments of dailylife by 2025, with huge implications for a range of industries such as healthcare, transport and logistics, customer service, and home maintenance.
Computers are already surpassing humans at tasksthat were deemed deeply human, even those tasks that require creativity. The Bank of England’s chiefeconomist stated that 80 million jobs in the United States, and 15 million jobsin the United Kingdom might be taken over by robots. In January 2016, a studyfound that 60% occupations could be computerised. What does this mean for thefuture of humans in a world run by artificially intelligent machines? Elon Musk has stated, “Therecertainly will be job disruption.
Because what’s going to happen is robots willbe able to do everything better than us. ..
. I mean all of us.” A study by Oxford Universityacademicians found that 702 occupations were at risk of being taken over byrobots. Jobs such as that of a telemarketer, loan officer, cashier, and taxidriver are most likely to be exposed to automation. Robots are mainly predictedto take over jobs that are repetitive in nature, such as that of a lawyer. Relation Between Wage Gaps and ArtificialIntelligence Artificial Intelligence will be able to perform more tasksmore efficiently than humans in the near future. This could mean thatautomation might make it possible to create more wealth without labor.
A report published in2017 by the Institute for Public PolicyResearch has showed that automation will only increase the gender wage gap. Theresearch showed that a larger percentage of jobs held by women (46.8%) have thepotential to be automated, as compared to the percentage of jobs held by men(40.9%).
The reason for this is “women’s underrepresentation in high-skilloccupations.” A study conducted by theMassachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that for every robot integratedin the US economy, employment would reduce by 5.6 workers.There is also the possibility that mass automation will increase therich-poor wage gap. This will be a result of automation of jobs performed byunskilled workers, rendering unskilled workers jobless. Also, high-skilledworkers such as people working in the fields of engineering and technology,will only grow richer because of an increase in demand. However, there willalso be positive sides to the integration of automatons.
A research conductedby PwC states that automated machines will lead to the creation of more jobs,and greater income in sectors that are less automatable, such as personal services.The research has also stated automated machines could lead to “quite possibly also a more skewedincome distribution with a greater proportion going to those with the skills tothrive in an ever more digital economy – this would put a premium not just oneducation levels when entering the workforce, but also the ability to adaptover time and reskill throughout a working life.”Whilemany jobs will become mostly automated, many new jobs will be created in theirplace, requiring different, and better skills.
In support of some claims thatlarge scale unemployment will not be a result of automation, is the Luddite Fallacy, which states that technological advancementswill not lead to a long-term increase in unemployment. The fallacy states thattechnological advancements will just lead to a creation of a new set of jobswhich will require different skills. However, many experts have indeed saidthat jobs for humans won’t entirely vanish, only their purpose and scope willchange. As explained by the author of The Future of the Professions andTomorrow’s Lawyers, “What you’re going to see for alot of jobs is a churn of different tasks.
So a lawyer today doesn’t develop systems thatoffer advice, but the lawyer of 2025 will. They’ll still be called lawyers butthey’ll be doing different things.” Ina research by PwC, AI will help boost the global GDP by 14 percent by 2013. AIis also expected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the world’s economy in thenext decade. Addressing ConcernsAbout Self Aware AI Scientists define self-awarenessas “Selecting information and making it available for computation, and theself-monitoring of these computations to give a subjective sense of certainty.” Some scientistsdo believe it is possible to code machines to possess this form of consciousnessin the future. However, this has led to much debate about the safety of mankindin a world of sentient robots.
World renownedscientists and experts have expressed their fears about the development of AI.Stephen Hawking has stated that he believes that humanity is at the risk ofbeing destroyed by self-aware robots. Hawking has gone so far as to state thatAI may even be the “worst event in the history of our civilization.
” Elon Musk has alsoexpressed similar concerns. He has stated that if left unsupervised andunregulated, “AI is a fundamental risk to the existenceof human civilization.” He believes that odds of AI turning out to be safe areonly around five to ten percent. Seth Shostak, an astronomer, has stated, “The first generation of AIis just going to do what you tell them; however, by the third generation, then theywill have their own agenda.” However,many experts stay optimistic about the development of such machines and believethis could impact the world positively.
Bill Gates has stated that there is noneed for people to panic about any developments made in the field of AI. MarkZuckerberg also believes that the possibility of robots possibly causing a “doomsday”is not possible. Conclusion It is too soon totell if AI could lead to a golden age of human existence, or if AI could end humanity. ArtificialIntelligence is rapidly developing and is here to help humanity. The level atwhich AI is currently at is harmless. For now, machine learning systems arestill in the developmental stage.
There are only upsides to artificial intelligencein today’s world- artificial intelligence has saved many lives. In the long term, thegoal of artificial intelligence is the creation of a machine that will surpasshuman intelligence. When this does happen, AI will have to be used carefullyand under closed supervision to revolutionize every aspect of life. ArtificialIntelligence can be used to bring about mostly positive changes if it isclosely regulated, and if placed in the wrong hands, the results will be disastrous.While the development of AI is pioneering, the world will surely be gravelyaffected in the near future by the changes made with the help of the so-calledrobot revolution.